VSN

VSN Satsang links

Shloka Name	Telugu Lyrics Link	English Lyrics Link	Audio Link
1. Ganesha Pancharatnam	శ్రీ గణేశ పంచరత్నం	Ganesha Pancharatnam	Audio
2. Lakshmi stotram	శ్రీ లక్ష్మీ అష్టోత్తరశతనామ స్తోత్రం.	Lakshmi Ashtottara Satanama Stotram	Audio
3. Vishnu Sahasra Namam	శ్రీ విష్ణుసహస్రనామస్తోత్రం	Vishnu Sahasra Nama Stotram	Audio
4. Nama Ramayanam	నామరామాయణం	Nama Ramayanam	Audio
5. Hanuman Chalisa	హనుమాన్ చాలీసా	Hanuman Chalisa	Audio
6. Arathi	ఓం జయ జగదీశ హరే	oṃ jaya jagadīśa hare	Audio

All these years - Telugu

Pavan Chittapragada, a very dear friend of mine - for over 30 years, had translated my earlier poem - All these years in Telugu.

Proud to say that this is the first "work" of mine that is translated in another language.
Here is the link.
https://manatelugumaata.blogspot.com/2019/06/blog-post.html

Pavan and I "must have" first met when we were in tenth grade during a city-level debate competition in the last century. The reason I say "must have" is - there were 50 other kids representing our respective schools in a debate competition on a rainy afternoon. I am sure we probably ran into each other that day during the competition.

But, the first time we really met was on a Telugu newspaper headline. It was a short blurb in a local newspaper titled - "పవన్ ప్రకాష్ ల ప్రతిభ"  - Some journalist showing talent in combining our names that reads "Pavan Prakash la Prathibha" - along the lines of "Pavan and Prakash's talent".

The two of us were selected for the next regional level in a different city and that is where we really met in person. Since then, we went to college together, stayed in touch with each other and our families are growing up together in two different countries. Last year, it was great to see our kids spend time together during the holidays.

Between the two of us, the one who retained his talent for the native tongue is my friend. For those who can read Telugu - here we meet together again in the translated world ! For those who can't - sorry that you are missing the translation - it is better than the English version !

All these years...

You stared at me from in between the words.

And yet, in all these years, 

I barely recognized you in any sentence... 

You ceased at every breath I ever took. 

And yet, in all these years, 

I hardly felt your presence... 

You stood quiet in between the beats of the music I loved to listen. 

And yet, in all these years, 

I was focused on humming just the tones, voiding your very essence...

You are the home in which every speck of matter in this Universe resides. 

And yet, in all these years, 

I ran after seemingly spectacular things looking for your absence... 

You are the spirit that fuels every cell in all life and otherwise.

And yet, in all these years, 

You hid so deep for me to grasp you behind all that material substance...

In all these years,

Space, pause, still, lull- you have been speaking in silence, dropping many hints. 

Now as I grow older,
I yearn for what the mystics could experience of your quintessence... 

Every morning, you flash in between the chirping birds and whispering leaves while the  wind blows. 

As soon as the clock roars setting the tune for a busy day, I begin to forget your existence...

But, with a little more persistence...

Amidst a cloud of thoughts, I have started sensing your momentary interludes. 

I wish I could hold you past the meditations with a little more consistence! 

PS:
A night at Marriott..

PS: A very good friend of mine did the translation of the above into Telugu.

Currency adjusted Returns - with absolute values for exchange rates

In the previous post, we had three percentages to start with for the cross-border investor 1) Absolute rate of return in local currency 2) Currency appreciation/depreciation rate 3) Inflation rate. And, we compared how to assess performance.

In this post, we have access to the exact and absolute values for currency exchange rates, instead of the just the appreciation/depreciation rates.

So, in the first method, we calculate the rate of return when you have absolute values . We also validate in the second method, using the Formulae 1 and 2 from the previous post.

In this example, Let's consider that Ms. Uma Sheldon (USA based investor - henceforth Ms.US) purchased an asset for 120 INR (when 1 USD = 40 INR) and sold at 300 INR (when 1 USD = 60 INR)

Method 1 - Using Absolute values for currency exchange rates

To calculate her currency-adjusted returns in USD:

Purchase price = 120/40 = 3 USD
Sale price = 300/60 = 5 USD

Hence the rate of return for Ms.US in dollar terms = (5-3)/3 = 66.67%


Method 2 - Validation using the formula from previous post.

Now, let's validate the same using Formula 1 and Formula 2 from the previous post.


Formula 1) Rate of Return (Nominal Rate of return)

In INR terms, the rate of return is (300-120)/120 = 150%

Formula 2) Currency Conversions

The currency depreciated from 40 to 60 in this period.
Let's calculate that percentage decrease.

1 INR, at the time of purchase would have procured 1/40 USD.
At the time of sale, 1 INR would have procured 1/60 USD.

So, the rate of depreciation is
(1/60 - 1/40) / (1/40)  = -33.33%

So, using this for the currency appreciation rate in Formula 2 from the previous post:

[(1+nominal rate) * (1+currency appreciation rate) ] - 1

[ (1+150%) * (1-33.33%) ] - 1 = 66.67% 

This is the same result as you had in Method 1.

After arriving at this number using either Method, you can continue with the inflation-adjusted real rate of return using Formula 3 from the previous post.

How did I do on my investment ?

How did my investment perform ? What information do I need to calculate my performance? How do I calculate my real rate of return? How to calculate returns for investment made in a different country?

This blog is inspired by several discussions over the years where first-generation immigrants generally struggle in comparing their investments across two different countries. Hopefully, you will find this useful. I am not a certified financial planner. This is not meant to be taken as an investment advice.

Let us consider the case of two siblings - Inderjit and Uma. Both were born and brought up in India.
Mr. Inderjit Narayanan Dikshitar (Mr. Ind) continued to live in India. He only invests in Indian investments.

His sister, Ms. Uma moved to the US, married Mr. Sheldon and has been living in US for the last 30 years. Ms. Uma Sheldon (Ms. US) invests primarily in the US. However, she has also made investments in India.

Let's compare three investments across these two siblings.
I1) Mr. Ind invests in in the Indian stock market on May 26 2014.

I2) Ms.US also invests in the Indian stock market on the same date. The main difference being Ms.US converted her US Dollars (USD) to Indian Rupee (INR) on that day.

I3) Ms. US also invested in the US stock market on the same date.

So, the two questions we will be asking are
Q1) Who did better: Mr. Ind on his Indian investment or Ms. US on her US investment ? and by how much ?
Q2) Which investment was better for Ms. US: her Indian investment or her US investment ? and by how much ?

In this article
- Mr. Ind and Ms.US refer to the individual persons
- INR and USD refer to the actual currency
- India and USA refer to the country names

For this example, I will be using the data from the table at the end of the previous post titled - How is my country doing? Summarized below for India and USA. If you need to understand how to get that data, please read the previous post.

All these values were pulled on 8/23/18. Excel gives a formula to calculate the number of years in between the start date of May 28, 2014 and end date of Aug 23 2018. Using YEARFRAC(start, end) - the duration for these investments is 4.24 years

Let's answer the two questions on these three investments using the following four formulae.

Formula 1) Rate of Return (Nominal Rate of return)

This is the easiest to start with. Expressing gain or loss over a particular period as a %age of  original value.

(current value - original value) 
-------------------------------------    * 100
         original value


If you have another investment, you can use the above formula to calculate your personal returns. Needless to say, use the current and original value in the same local currency. For cross-border investments, do not take into account the currency fluctuations yet.
For example, if your asset increased in value from INR 120 to INR 300 over a period, the gain is (300-120)*100/120 = 150%.

This rate of return is also called the Nominal rate of return. Think of this as the returns on paper.

In our case, the USA stock market increased by 45.69% and India market increased by 51.19% over the same period. (Ref: table above)

So, based on this data alone - let us try answering the questions
Q1) Who did better ? Mr. Ind seemed to have done better on his Indian investment (I1=51.19%) compared to Ms. US on her US investment (I3=45.69%)
Q2) Which investment was better for Ms. US ? Unable to conclude since we don't have currency information at this stage.

Formula 2) Currency Conversions

Let's try answering that 2nd question for Ms. US now.

During that time the Indian currency depreciated from the 58s to about 70 - a 16.25% depreciation per the table above.

If Ms.US were to sell her Indian investment and bring it back into USD today, here is the formula to calculate her rate of return, taking into account the currency conversion.

[(1+nominal rate) * (1+currency appreciation rate) ] - 1

Using 51.19% for the Indian stock market return from the original, and a negative value for 16.25% for currency depreciation , her personal rate of return on the Indian investment is 

[(1+0.5119) (1-0.1625)] - 1  = 26.62%

So, based on this data - let us try answering the 2nd question.
Q2) Which investment was better for Ms. US ? Her USA investment (I3 = 45.69% - no change to this one) did better than her Indian investment (I2 = 26.62% calculated in this section)

PS: Sometimes, you are able to combine the two formulae 1 and 2 above when you have absolute values for your exchange rates, as described in this post.


Formula 3) Inflation-adjusted rate of return (Real rate of return)

While the investments may have certainly increased , the underlying currencies (both USD and INR) are not as worth now as it was before. A $100 that was worth in 2014 will get you fewer goods in 2018. Similarly, 100 Rupees in 2014 will also get you fewer goods in 2018. This is captured using their respective inflation rates in their countries.

From the table above, the cumulative inflation for that period in US was 5.68% while in India it was 18.6%. So, let's calculate the inflation-adjusted rate using the formula

                                 (1+nominal rate)

Real rate of return = --------------------   - 1

                                  (1+inflation rate)

For the three investments, here are the returns

I1) Mr.Ind on his Indian investment - use 51.19% for nominal rate and 18.6% for inflation rate

His inflation adjusted return is 27.48%

I2) Ms. US on her Indian investment - use the currency-converted 26.62% calculated in Formula 2 section above for nominal rate and 5.68% for USA Inflation rate.

The reason why we use USA inflation rate of 5.68% is - she intends to spend this money in the US. She had a choice to invest in US vs. India. So, just like her US investment, the inflation rate is also US.

Her inflation adjusted return on Indian investment is 19.82% 

I3) Ms. US on her US investment - use 45.69% for nominal rate and 5.68% for USA inflation rate

Her inflation adjusted return is 37.86%

Now, let us try answering the questions, adjusted for inflation.
Q1) Who did better ? The roles are reversed from the conclusion in Formula 1. Ms. US did better on her US investment (I3 = 37.86%) compared to Mr. Ind on his Indian investment (I1=27.48%)


Q2) Which investment was better for Ms. US ? Her US investment (I3=37.86%) did better than her Indian investment (I2=19.82%)

By how much ? It is too tempting to do (37.86 - 19.82) for Q2 and (37.86-27.48) for Q1 to answer the question by how much.

You would not be wrong in this case because all the investments (I1, I2, I3) were purchased and sold on the same date (by design to keep it simple)

Formula 4) Annualized return
If  these investments were done on different dates and held for different duration, you wouldn't be concluding correctly.  And, that is where the final formula comes into picture.

With an annualized return, you are comparing apples and oranges by bringing them under a common umbrella.  The question that annualized return answers is : What is that "hypothetical annual rate of return" over "a same period" that would produce these respective cumulative returns for 3 different investments I1, I2 and I3  over "different periods" ? Here is another good article on this topic at the Motley Fool.

The math behind is:

(1+ annualized return) ^ n  = 1 + Cumulative return
where n is number of years over which the cumulative return was calculated.

In other words,
annualized return = [ (1 + cumulative return)^ (1/n) ] - 1


Here are the annualized returns for these three inflation-adjusted returns calculated in Formula 3.

I1) Use cumulative return = 27.48% ; n = 4.24 => Annualized return = 5.9%
I2) Use cumulative return = 19.82% ; n = 4.24 => Annualized return = 4.36%
I3) Use cumulative return = 37.86% ; n = 4.24 => Annualized return = 7.87%

As you see, the value of n is same across all the three investments. Hence, you could have compared regardless. However, this formula 4 is very helpful in real life situations when different investments are held for different duration.

Final Answer to the two questions 
Now, let us try answering the questions, adjusted for inflation using the annualized returns above.

Q1) Who did better ? The conclusion is still the same. Ms. US did better on her US investment (I3 = 7.87%) compared to Mr. Ind on his Indian investment (I1=5.9%).

By How much ? Now you can do the subtraction (7.87 - 5.9) = 1.97% annualized

Q2) Which investment was better for Ms. US ? Her US investment (I3=7.87%) did better than her Indian investment (I2=4.36%)

By How much ? (7.87 - 4.36) = 3.51% annualized

Bonus Insight:
Look at how the same Indian investment was better for Mr.Ind (I1 = 5.9%) than for Ms. US (I2=4.36%). This was because of the lower inflation rate that we used for Ms. US in the case of I2. In other words, the two siblings were better off investing in their respective markets. This is under the assumption that Mr.Ind didn't have access to US stock market.

Additional considerations :

Here are some additional considerations that we didn't get into.

1) Taxes - I have not discussed taxes on these investments to determine the post-tax return. Ideally, the inflation-adjusted rate should be calculated on the post-tax return. Depending on the duration you hold (Short-term vs. long-term capital gains), the kind of account you invest in (tax-deferred vs. not), the income tier one belongs to (the top marginal rate could be different by country) and country of origin (US tax on global income) - these returns are to be discounted with different tax rates.

2) Transaction costs - I have not accounted for transaction costs in trading these investments. I just used index as a broad metric. Similarly, if your investments are real assets, you must include all the transaction costs in buying, maintaining and selling the asset.

For instance, the currency conversion costs are not included in this analysis. There is some additional small leakage in this case as the rates that you would get from your banks are not the same as those used in the table above from fxtop site.

3) Risk-adjusted return - Not all investments are the same. Some are riskier bets than others. For an in-depth of treatment of the various risk ratios, WallstreetMojo has a good article.

4) Internal rate of return: Finally, all these three investments above are a simple transaction - with a single purchase and a single exit. So, it was easy to calculate the rate of return using Formula 1 for these investments.

In some cases, there are multiple and non-periodic cash flow situations, before the asset is finally disposed off. Using XIRR (Excel) for Formula 1 is topic for another day !

Trade and Wars

If you liked the blog on how your country performed and like doing extra homework :), check out the following topics.

1) Battle-related deaths 

- When Somalia, India, Pakistan, US and UK are selected.
- Include Afghanistan and  see the Y-axis scale
- Add Syria and now watch
- And, for a comprehensive data (not visual) list on this topic, here is the wiki
- And, a good empirical perspective with infographics.

2) Trade

Check out the Trade to GDP ratio of various countries. This is a measure of how open a country is to international trade, and is also called the trade-openness ratio.

If you are surprised by the graph and want to dig more, here is the link to the graph from the Google Public Data Explorer using the Human Development Indicator dataset.

How is my country doing since... ?

How to compare the performance of different countries over a period of time? What are some good financial and economic metrics? Where do I find them ? Is it free and easy ?


A few of us in our private whatsapp group discuss politics quite passionately. This blog is inspired by those discussions. I used the start date of  May 26 2014 as a reference to do an even comparison of different countries across multiple metrics - and summarized the stock market performance.

If you want to know the significance of the date, get quickly to the bottom of this blog titled - Results ! For those who are patient with the journey, you will have access to cool data visualization and data sets that are publicly available to draw your own inferences.


1) Stock market performance

Yahoo still runs one of the best finance websites. Chart specifically allows you to monitor performance over a custom date range. Here is the performance of the major stock indices. Which country gave a 51% increase in just about 4 years ? Check out below. Investing.com is another good source for historical data

2) Currency Comparison

Fxtop has historical exchange rate comparisons over a custom date range. Some major currencies listed below. When you invest cross border, go beyond the absolute performance of the asset. Take into account how foreign exchange eats into or aids in your investment performance.

You must have seen a lot of media coverage for Indian Rupee hovering in the 70s against the USD. Any guesses on which other OECD country didn't fare as well  as the INR ?

3) Macro Economic data 

I found the Google Public Data Explorer very useful.

Google has hundreds of public datasets. I specifically like the  World Development Indicators dataset provided by Worldbank. This has very good cross-country comparison across Economic policy, Labor data, Health, Infrastructure and many more.

For instance: Real GDP (adjusted for inflation) for specific countries over a defined period. Not surprised at the emerging economies flying high !

You can also use the link functionality on the top right to share it like this, where I compare consumer price index across multiple countries.


Another equally powerful site is tradingeconomics.com . It has a lot of economic data all in one place and can be exported via API. But, I couldn't find charting functionality across countries. Here is another example of comparing historical inflation rates. Check out how Inflation rate is going down in India from the high of 12.17% in Nov 2013 to hovering around 4% range in 2018.

But, I love their calendar functionality below. It is a good stop to look at your daily economic calendar But, I digress !

Another source to find Inflation over a custom period for certain countries is StatBureau.
Could find all the countries I am tracking for this article except China.


Results

If you have come all the way here ..  you probably are looking for the significance of this date.
It is the day on which Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister of India. Not that, a country's performance is tied so specifically to a particular date. But, you can decide for yourself on how a country performed relative to other countries - all during a common time frame, using the tools described above on this blog.

Here is the summary of investing in each of those countries - adjusted for inflation, over the last 4 years and 3 months approx.

India, Japan and US were the top 3 on different metrics. China, UK and the Europe were consistently on 4th, 5th, and 6th across all metrics.

1) India did the best in absolute market returns (10.25% annualized). However, an equally high cumulative inflation (18.6%) knocks the real rate of return to a 3rd rank at 5.9% annualized - slightly ahead of China, and clearly ahead of UK and Europe.
2) Japan did the best (9.15% annualized) on real return due to low-inflation. However, since the currency also depreciated against the dollar, it only yielded (5.98% annualized) for the cross-border US investor.
3) For the US based investor, US market was the best at (7.87% annualized real rate of return)


If you want to understand the math behind the calculations, check out my post - How did I do on my investment ?

PS: If you are interested in additional insights using the Google Data explorer, check out for insights on Trade and Wars.

Your Umbrella Personality

What is your Umbrella Personality Type ?

I like rainy days.

It is a wonderful time to slow down and an opportunity to get in sync with the flow of life. As every child did, I remember watching the dance of the rain drops down the glass window panes. Some times two drops come together to merge and form one; and after some time they get bogged down by their own weight and split; and yet some other times they are so near and yet they don't even mingle. As a thoroughly trained Indian movie goer, my favorite was the one where they come from two different paths, merge some where midway and go all the way together till the bottom of the window and disappear at once !

In my adult life, this hobby extended to being a little more reflective during rains and at times - engage in people watching. I am impressed at how people use their umbrellas. There is a whole gamut of scenarios that is unfolded here.

Starting with the most usual type - some one walking at a steady pace with a reasonably-sized black umbrella to cover themselves while in rain - Sure, you see several of these. But, nothing fascinating. Some carry an umbrella that is probably enough just to cover their head - but do let their bags over their shoulders get wet. A few other slender looking types carry something too big to accommodate some one else comfortably in.

Most are black. A few bold types venture out now and then with flamboyant colors. I occasionally see the transparent ones which are a pleasing thing to watch. On the other hand, nature scores a goal against man when the umbrella is being torn or ripped apart by a stronger wind.

It is fascinating to see how people behave without their umbrellas while raining. A few walk confidently and slowly down the road as though they are entering the stage to perform in the role of a king. A few others run as fast as they can splashing water along the way, and probably getting wetter from the splash below than the rain above ! The best sight to watch is when a group of kids enjoy their dance in the rain when parents are not around. I have to admit I do occasionally stick out my tongue in the rain and blame it on the kids :)

I have seen a few who struggle to open their car trunk in the parking lot, while getting wet - only to realize - Surprise ! There is no umbrella inside. A few others, who run in rain carrying their umbrella (without opening it) because it is just a short distance to get to the building. Others who enter the building, fold it properly put it in their own umbrella bag while a few others use the throw-away bag at the building entrances.

I know of a friend who is so meticulous that he keeps one in the car and the other in his office so he is always covered. And sometimes the planner/lazy types who brought his umbrella to the office that morning (knowing that it was going to rain in the afternoon), comes out of the building during lunch without his umbrella , yet lazy enough to go back and pick it up and thus decides to get wet any way.

In Seattle where it is a surprise when it doesn't rain, I have seen a "community umbrella" concept in some malls/buildings where stores and offices keep a reserve of umbrellas in a bucket at their front door. Anyone picks it up while exiting, uses it for a short distance and drops at the next "drop off point".

Umbrellas in Disney World are a painful scene to watch - Kids are oblivious to the weather and are having a great time while the parents have to keep one more thing together in addition to their truck load of things for the day.

It gets more interesting when you see a person to umbrella relation is not one to one.
We have all seen a group of folks coming together from lunch where there is just one person short of it and squeezes between two umbrellas either to get his head or butt in - but not both. And sometimes, the private person who really doesn't like to share his and yet grudgingly accommodates - but takes the lion share of his own umbrella, practically providing very little coverage to the other. Some times it feels bad to watch two people walking out of the same building at the same time, walking in the same direction - one of whom is fully covered by his umbrella and the other walking right next to him without.

A few other memorable ones that caught my attention over the years:

An elderly couple during their morning walk in Atlanta - both carried their respective umbrellas in their hands and strangely - they were unopened even though it was raining. May be they were too engrossed in their conversation.

A man walking with his dog and both had their respective umbrellas.

My personal favorite - A dad and his daughter (may be 5 year old) walking some where around Times Square with only one umbrella between the two of them while it was drizzling. Dad was carrying a backpack on his shoulders, a shopping bag in his left hand, no umbrella for himself and holding a kid's umbrella for his daughter on his right hand - all while letting her walk at her pace. I ran to him, patted on his back and said.."Nice job buddy. That's what Dads do" !